Predictions for the Upcoming 2022 Hurricane Season

5/19/2022 (Permalink)

Hurricane Michael was the last major storm to hit Florida and devastated the panhandle.

Florida hasn't experienced a major hurricane since 2018, but forecasters are predicting a more active hurricane season for 2022. This could mean an increased risk of Florida experiencing a major hurricane for the first time in more than three years.

For the 2022 hurricane season, forecasters say that there is a more than 44 percent chance that Florida will be impacted by a major hurricane during the 2022 season. This prediction was made by Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project.

During a typical hurricane season, the same forecasters at Colorado State offer a 29 percent chance that Florida will be struck by a major hurricane. To be exact, the university's predictions say a major hurricane could strike within fifty miles of Florida.

The lead researcher at CSU, Phil Klotzback, says, "In the last couple of years, Florida has generally gotten 'lucky.'"

Klotzbach says that Florida has experienced some impacts from major storms in the last few years, but these impacts haven't been direct ones. Klotzbach points out Eta in 2020 as well as Elsa, Fred and Mindy. "But they weren't huge impacts. Obviously, Louisiana has been the state that has been kind of ground zero in the last two years."

CSU ranks a major hurricane as one that has been categorized as a Category 3, 4, or 5. These storms contain winds of at least 111 mph or higher.

The hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends on November 30.

The research team at Colorado State University has predicted seven consecutive years of an above-average hurricane season, beginning in 2015. This year's forecast holds that at least nineteen named storms will develop, four of these will be major hurricanes and nine storms will upgrade to hurricane status (this means winds reach 74 mph or higher).

During an average hurricane season, the odds of a named storm impacting Florida is 86 percent; however, this year, CSU is predicting that there is a 96 percent chance that a named storm will hit Florida. The odds of a hurricane (a named storm with at least 74 mph winds) will impact Florida is 75 percent; on an average, the chances are only 56 percent.

Researchers at CSU predict that a major hurricane will impact the East Coast, including Florida, during the 2022 hurricane season at a 47 percent probability. Typically, this is only a 31 percent chance. The odds that a major hurricane (Category 3 - 5 with winds above 111 mph) will impact states along the Gulf Coast (from the Florida Panhandle to Texas) is 46 percent this year. On average, that chance is only about thirty percent.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has announced that they believe conditions are favorable for at least fourteen named storms during 2022 and seven hurricanes. NOAA predicts there will be three major hurricanes in the Atlantic this year.